# MP Materials (MP) — Axion Equity Dossier (understanding the performance)

**Verdict.** **AVOID as core vs QQQ; policy-catalyst position at most.** Axion P(beats QQQ)=0.37, P(2x by Jul 2028)=0.30 vs P(halve by Jul 2027)=0.23. The 'trades with semis' effect is beta (partial corr 0.10); the momentum-crowd coupling is real (partial 0.47–0.52, shift p=0.02) and sector-wide. Decorrelates only on MP-sized policy shocks; the dated one is the 10 Nov 2026 MOFCOM suspension expiry.

Full published report: https://mp-dossier.us-east-1.gists.org