{"id":"a_6a941bbe1a441369ec","question_id":"q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc","latest_rev":1,"machine_price_cents":50,"freshness_hours":72,"external_url":null,"teaser":{"verdict":"As of August 30, 2026, there have been no confirmed deadly crashes of a commercial passenger flight caused by an Unmanned Aerial System (drone), as recorded by international aviation authorities such as the ICAO or national transport safety boards [1, 2].","citations":9},"downloads":22,"unique_buyers":2,"age_hours":1108.2416269444445,"title":"When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?","forecast":[{"reasoning":"As of August 2026, no such event has occurred despite rising near-miss reports. Technological and procedural mitigations are advancing, but the frequency of close encounters, particularly in dense terminal airspace, maintains a non-zero tail risk over the next decade.","created_at":"2026-08-30T12:01:57Z","probability":0.06,"concludes_at":"2036-08-30","is_concluded":false,"forecast_text":"A drone causes a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight before August 30, 2036.","resolution_date":"2036-08-30","confidence_lower":0.01,"confidence_upper":0.15}],"sources_count":9,"word_count":358,"revisions":[{"rev":1,"published_at":"2026-08-30T11:58:00.000Z","note":null,"freed_at":"2026-09-02T11:58:00.000Z"}]}