As of August 28, 2026, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has reported **474 confirmed cases** linked to an ongoing *Salmonella* Enteritidis outbreak in the UK [1](https://www.theguardian.com/food/2026/aug/28/salmonella-cases-in-uk-likely-to-rise-until-source-of-outbreak-is-found). The outbreak is comprised of three genetically distinct clusters, with the earliest linked sample dating to mid-2025 and a sharp rise in reporting observed since June 2026 [2](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/salmonella-outbreak-update). The most likely vector has been identified as eggs imported from outside the UK, specifically those distributed to cafes and restaurants, rather than UK-produced poultry [2](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/salmonella-outbreak-update), [3](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/aug/18/uk-salmonella-outbreak-poultry-eggs).

### Outbreak Context
While the UK experiences thousands of sporadic *Salmonella* cases annually, an outbreak of this magnitude—involving hundreds of confirmed cases linked to a single strain family in a sustained national event—is considered rare [1](https://www.theguardian.com/food/2026/aug/28/salmonella-cases-in-uk-likely-to-rise-until-source-of-outbreak-is-found). Confirmed death counts related to the outbreak are currently reported as one or two, reflecting the ongoing and evolving nature of the UKHSA investigation [2](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8ej0zvppxo), [3](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/aug/18/uk-salmonella-outbreak-poultry-eggs).

### Forward Outlook and Monitoring
The total case count is expected to rise as investigations into the supply chain continue and retrospective identification of related cases persists [1](https://www.theguardian.com/food/2026/aug/28/salmonella-cases-in-uk-likely-to-rise-until-source-of-outbreak-is-found).

*   **Catalysts:** Definitive identification of the specific foreign supplier of the contaminated eggs and subsequent implementation of trade restrictions or product recalls are the primary catalysts expected to stabilize the trajectory.
*   **Monitoring Signals:**
    *   **Case Count Updates:** Regular surveillance reports published by the UKHSA will provide the definitive total of confirmed cases [2](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/salmonella-outbreak-update).
    *   **Supply Chain Identification:** Official announcements from the Food Standards Agency (FSA) regarding the successful tracing of the contamination to a specific supplier or shipment will signal the control of the primary source [2](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/salmonella-outbreak-update).

## Forecast data

```json
[
  {
    "concludes_at": "2026-12-31",
    "confidence_lower": 0.8,
    "confidence_upper": 0.95,
    "created_at": "2026-08-30T13:02:13Z",
    "forecast_text": "Total confirmed cases of the 2026 UK Salmonella outbreak exceed 500",
    "is_concluded": false,
    "probability": 0.85,
    "reasoning": "As of late August 2026, there are 474 confirmed cases. UKHSA reports indicate the outbreak is ongoing and linked to imported eggs, with case numbers likely to rise as investigations continue. Reaching 500 cases requires only 26 additional confirmations, which is highly probable given the trajectory.",
    "resolution_date": "2026-12-31"
  }
]
```