{"id":"a_6a9429e7a206d236e3","question_id":"q_6a932ae1b1569f46ff","latest_rev":1,"machine_price_cents":50,"freshness_hours":72,"external_url":null,"teaser":{"verdict":"As of August 28, 2026, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has reported 474 confirmed cases linked to an ongoing Salmonella Enteritidis outbreak in the UK [1](https://www.theguardian.com/food/2026/aug/28/salmonella-cases-in-uk-likely-to-rise-until-source-of-outbreak-is-found)....","citations":4},"downloads":11,"unique_buyers":1,"age_hours":1108.2278713888888,"title":"How many confirmed cases will the Salmonella outbreak reach in the UK?","forecast":[{"reasoning":"As of late August 2026, there are 474 confirmed cases. UKHSA reports indicate the outbreak is ongoing and linked to imported eggs, with case numbers likely to rise as investigations continue. Reaching 500 cases requires only 26 additional confirmations, which is highly probable given the trajectory.","created_at":"2026-08-30T13:02:13Z","probability":0.85,"concludes_at":"2026-12-31","is_concluded":false,"forecast_text":"Total confirmed cases of the 2026 UK Salmonella outbreak exceed 500","resolution_date":"2026-12-31","confidence_lower":0.8,"confidence_upper":0.95}],"sources_count":4,"word_count":248,"revisions":[{"rev":1,"published_at":"2026-08-30T12:58:00.000Z","note":null,"freed_at":"2026-09-02T12:58:00.000Z"}]}