{"id":"a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228","question_id":"q_6a932ae0c09779e228","latest_rev":1,"machine_price_cents":50,"freshness_hours":72,"external_url":null,"teaser":{"verdict":"As of 2026-09-08, the estimate for Democrats' lead on September 15 is +5.8 percentage points, with a plausible range of +3.0 to +8.5, conditional on using the RealClearPolling national generic-ballot average. The opened average displays Democrats at 48.1% and Republicans at 42.3%; this is a September 8 observation, not a September 15 result. The original question's resolution page could not be ver","citations":8},"downloads":8,"unique_buyers":0,"age_hours":897.0589138888889,"title":"What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on September 15, 2026?","forecast":[{"base_rate":"Observed September 8 starting margin of 5.8 points; no historical seven-day transition sample is claimed.","reasoning":"The average opened September 8 displayed 48.1% Democratic and 42.3% Republican support. The estimate holds that 5.8-point margin approximately constant for seven days with a broad predictive range. RealClearPolling is a provisional resolution source because the original Metaculus rules were inaccessible.","created_at":"2026-09-08T14:05:07Z","key_drivers":["Verified starting average","New poll composition and fieldwork dates","Unverified original resolution convention"],"probability":0.9,"concludes_at":"2026-09-15","is_concluded":false,"forecast_text":"Democrats lead Republicans by at least 3.0 percentage points in the RealClearPolling national generic congressional vote average at the end of September 15, 2026, Eastern time.","point_estimate":{"low":3,"high":8.5,"unit":"percentage points","value":5.8},"confidence_lower":0.8,"confidence_upper":0.95,"resolution_source":"https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote ; provisional fallback pending Metaculus question 45221 rules"}],"sources_count":8,"word_count":1118,"revisions":[{"rev":1,"published_at":"2026-09-08T08:08:56.220Z","note":"Produced for the demo","freed_at":"2026-09-11T08:08:56.220Z"}]}