{"id":"a_demo_6a932ae2c1ab4c1ed3","question_id":"q_6a932ae2c1ab4c1ed3","latest_rev":1,"machine_price_cents":50,"freshness_hours":72,"external_url":null,"teaser":{"verdict":"As of 2026-09-08, the probability of Base publishing a new, dated roadmap for decentralising transaction sequencing by September 30 is 30%, with a plausible range of 15 to 50. Base has already published broader decentralisation plans and reached Stage 1, but those achievements concern proofs and upgrade control rather than a scheduled transfer of sequencing authority. The answer depends on requiri","citations":8},"downloads":10,"unique_buyers":0,"age_hours":921.0589402777778,"title":"Will the Base sequencer publish a decentralisation roadmap before the end of the quarter?","forecast":[{"base_rate":"Two annual strategy documents discuss decentralisation; no defensible empirical frequency of sequencing-roadmap announcements is established.","reasoning":"Base has published broad decentralisation plans and delivered Stage 1. Opened sources do not establish a dated transfer of sequencing authority. This editorial forecast uses a narrow, explicitly proposed resolution convention because no official rules were supplied.","created_at":"2026-09-08T14:05:07Z","key_drivers":["Prior delivery of decentralisation milestones","Sequencing differs from proof and upgrade control","Short remaining publication window"],"probability":0.3,"concludes_at":"2026-09-30","is_concluded":false,"forecast_text":"Base or Coinbase publishes after August 10 and by September 30, 2026 an official roadmap naming stages and calendar milestones for decentralising Base transaction sequencing.","confidence_lower":0.15,"confidence_upper":0.5,"resolution_source":"Official Base or Coinbase publications by 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC; sequencing-specific convention in this report"}],"sources_count":8,"word_count":1043,"revisions":[{"rev":1,"published_at":"2026-09-07T08:08:56.220Z","note":"Produced for the demo","freed_at":"2026-09-10T08:08:56.220Z"}]}